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To avoid future conflicts being triggered, it’s crucial to focus on investing in education for young people – women in particular – and improving local housing, markets, schools and hospitals. Photo: Pixabay

Connecting the dots between climate change and conflict

11 Jul 2022
The upcoming Senegal summit is a follow-up to the 2015 inaugural edition during which the “Feed Africa” strategy for Agricultural Transformation (2016-2025) in Africa was proposed. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

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    The upcoming Senegal summit is a follow-up to the 2015 inaugural edition during which the “Feed Africa” strategy for Agricultural Transformation (2016-2025) in Africa was proposed. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

    Food production summit to open in Senegal

    Tomato losses: Solar-powered cold storage technology is of prime significance in Africa’s efforts to cut post-harvest tomato losses and attain food security, as outlined in the African Union Malabo Declaration. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

    Tanzania’s tomato harvest goes to waste

    Contextually, an average cow yields about 10 kilograms of dung per day, which corresponds to 1 000 litre biogas, equivalent to 2.14 kWh (electricity) while 1 000 litres of biomethane equals 10 kWh. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

    Biogas: ‘Cow dung can keep the lights on in SA’

    The Maputo Port is one of a number of harbours on the continent undergoing a changes to ready it for expansion. Photo: Wikicommons Media/Supplied

    ‘Ports race’ in Africa cuts both ways

    Mohamed Dhicis (19) started a beekeeping business in his hometown of Belet Weyne, in central Somalia. He is supported by an entrepreneurship develop programme of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in collaboration with the Somali Ministry of Commerce and Industries. Photo: Supplied/United Nations

    Bees and tractors: Agri leads the way in Somalia

    “EOS_SAT-1 is already fueled, configured for launch and integrated onto the upper stage of the rocket, waiting for the last remaining thing ¬– launch.” This notice and picture was posted on the Twitter page of aerospace start-up Dragonfly Aerospace. Photo: Twitter

    African agri satellite a world first

    Women attend a UNFPA-supported integrated community health outreach session on prevention and response to gender-based violence. Lokapararai village, Turkana county, Kenya. Photo: Supplied/UNFPA Kenya

    Drought puts Kenyan newborns at risk

    Child labour has increased exponentially over the course of the past four years, according to UNICEF and ILO. Photo: Wikkimedia Commons

    ‘Children exploited’ on Malawi tobacco farms

    5 ways tech is transforming agrifood systems

    5 ways tech is transforming agrifood systems

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    The upcoming Senegal summit is a follow-up to the 2015 inaugural edition during which the “Feed Africa” strategy for Agricultural Transformation (2016-2025) in Africa was proposed. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

    Food production summit to open in Senegal

    Tomato losses: Solar-powered cold storage technology is of prime significance in Africa’s efforts to cut post-harvest tomato losses and attain food security, as outlined in the African Union Malabo Declaration. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

    Tanzania’s tomato harvest goes to waste

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    Biogas: ‘Cow dung can keep the lights on in SA’

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    Mohamed Dhicis (19) started a beekeeping business in his hometown of Belet Weyne, in central Somalia. He is supported by an entrepreneurship develop programme of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in collaboration with the Somali Ministry of Commerce and Industries. Photo: Supplied/United Nations

    Bees and tractors: Agri leads the way in Somalia

    “EOS_SAT-1 is already fueled, configured for launch and integrated onto the upper stage of the rocket, waiting for the last remaining thing ¬– launch.” This notice and picture was posted on the Twitter page of aerospace start-up Dragonfly Aerospace. Photo: Twitter

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    Child labour has increased exponentially over the course of the past four years, according to UNICEF and ILO. Photo: Wikkimedia Commons

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    5 ways tech is transforming agrifood systems

    5 ways tech is transforming agrifood systems

  • Changemakers
    • All
    • Agribusiness
    • Agripreneurs
    • Farmers
    • Innovation
    Namibia's Popular Democratic Movement party has tabled a motion of insurance for farmers, that will compensate for the loss of livestock due to conflict with wildlife. Photo: Supplied/Food For Mzansi

    Computer model to ease farmer-wildlife conflict

    It started with a handful of trees on her family farm. Today Wezi Mzumara is breaking new ground as a woman chocolate maker in Malawi. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

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    Nature-based biopesticides are now offering a safer alternative to locust control. ©FAO/Ismail Taxta/Arete

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    The award-winning Nigerian farmer Samson Ogbole, who did not initially want to be a farmer, incorporates technology, science and agriculture to end hunger.

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    What started as an informal Facebook group has become a vibrant online market community in East Africa called Mkulima Young.

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    Greenify Global, a youth environmental conservation movement, works in schools in Zomba, Malawi, teaching children and creating food gardens according to permaculture principles. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

    Malawi permaculture project teaches earth care

    Woman Farmer Kerotse Lekabe (middle) with her workers in Pella, North West, where she farms with vegetables on six hectares of land. Photo- Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

    Woman farmer’s drive builds family business

    Support to improve women land ownership delivers life-changing benefits for women farmers in Tanzania, like Mariam Tungu, from Singida’s Ikungi district in central Tanzania. Photo: Supplied/FoodForAfrika.com

    Women land ownership changes destinies

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    • Climate Change
    • Crops
    • Food Trends
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    • Food Health
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Connecting the dots between climate change and conflict

by The Conversation
11 Jul 2022
in Agri News
Reading Time: 5 mins read
A A
To avoid future conflicts being triggered, it’s crucial to focus on investing in education for young people – women in particular – and improving local housing, markets, schools and hospitals. Photo: Pixabay

To avoid future conflicts being triggered, it’s crucial to focus on investing in education for young people – women in particular – and improving local housing, markets, schools and hospitals. Photo: Pixabay

The Horn of Africa, on the eastern coast of the continent, is currently being battered by an intense and sustained drouht, with at least 20 million people going hungry. This will become a common scenario as climate change takes hold. And, given the ongoing armed conflict in the region – particularly in Somalia and Ethiopia – getting nutritious food safely to these hungry people has become even more challenging.

This isn’t the first time these two situations have coincided in this region, but this time they’re both worsened by high wheat prices – thanks to the war in Ukraine and export embargoes in India affecting access to traditional foods such as porridge.

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Whether directly or indirectly, both drought and conflict can be linked to climate change. It’s of course vital to tackle these problems now. But if we don’t simultaneously address the long-term impacts of climate change too, any efforts we make in the present will be in vain.

Tracking conflict patterns

To try to project future risks from armed conflict in the region into the future, we – researchers from Utrecht University and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, together with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and Uppsala University – created a new machine learning model to look at how different scenarios of armed conflict over the African continent could play out between now and 2050. Specifically, we wanted to know how armed conflict could be affected by climate change, as well as by future social and economic development.

Our results showed that cutting emissions globally and investing in socioeconomic development locally can reduce the risk of conflict. Doing this would also have the added benefits of helping local food production flourish and lowering dependency on the international trade market. But when we ran this scenario, the Horn of Africa still remained especially prone to conflict.

We needed to understand why this area remains more at risk than others. First, we specifically looked at the effect of climate change on conflict, using indicators such as soil moisture and rainfall. 

Education the answer

What our model suggested was that these environmental factors weren’t actually as important as socioeconomic factors – such as education and GDP – because they usually merely light the spark of conflict risk in situations where people are already struggling. That means, to avoid future conflicts being triggered, it’s crucial to focus on investing in education for young people – women in particular – and improving local housing, markets, schools and hospitals.

But we also found that in large parts of eastern Africa, climate change is still going to increase conflict risk. To prepare for that, we need climate adaptation and peace-building programmes that take environmental change into account. 

A person wearing a shirt and jeans rakes soil on the right of the image, in a field with green plants growing in rows
Resilient crops are key for surviving droughts. Photo: Shutterstock

For example, it’s important that local farmers are given better access to banks and insurance, so if their crops fail one year they can start again the next. Farms need to prioritise crops that are more resilient against drought, such as quinoa, millet and sorghum. And financial organisations, governments, businesses and local communities must all be made responsible for lowering emissions and keeping climate change to a minimum. 

Challenges

Unfortunately, it’s extremely difficult to understand how climate change will actually affect conflict risk. The future trajectories of global warming and conflict are both surrounded by uncertainty. 

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Just because conflict was driven by certain factors in the past doesn’t mean that those factors will influence conflict in the same ways in the future, meaning that using history to project upcoming conflict is tricky. And geopolitical shifts, such as the current war in Ukraine, can alter conflict risk by raising food prices, slowing economic growth and causing tension between national governments.

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Developing and improving the accuracy of long-term conflict risk projections like ours is vitally important – not just to help prevent conflict now, but also to decide how to adapt to a changing climate in ways that will also reduce the likelihood of conflict. That could include programmes creating stable, inclusive employment opportunities for young people, or running intercommunity projects designed to reduce tensions between farmers and herders over land use. 

The UN climate change panel IPCC’s 2021 report has made it utterly clear that the window for action is shrinking. If world leaders don’t band together to cut emissions and prepare for a worsening climate in this “decade of action”, the situation in the Horn of Africa will only get worse.

Article originally published by The Conversation.

ALSO READ: The drought in Ethiopia could kill us just like our cows, says pastoralist

Tags: Climate ChangeconflictdroughtEthiopiaHorn of AfricaSomalia
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